College Football Week 1 - Friday

As we head into Week 1 of college football, several key matchups for Friday night  have caught our attention. Below, we break down the betting lines, team performance trends, and key factors to watch for as you prepare to make your picks.

Oklahoma vs. Temple: Friday Night Showdown

Line: Oklahoma -42.5 | O/U: 59.5

Temple faces a daunting task as they head to Oklahoma on Friday night. Historically, Oklahoma has dominated in home openers, boasting an 18-0 SU (Straight Up) record and 12-6 ATS (Against the Spread) in these games. Last year, they trounced Arkansas State 73-0 in their home opener.

However, Oklahoma enters this season with some uncertainty. They have a new offensive coordinator, a fresh quarterback, and a rebuilt offensive line. Despite these changes, their wide receiver corps remains one of the best in the nation, which should provide solid support for the new QB. Head Coach Brent Venables is in his third year, looking to improve on his 16-10 record, with many of his losses coming by one possession. Temple, on the other hand, is coming off a rough 3-win season and is rebuilding after losing their star QB EJ Warner to Rice.

Quick Hitters:

• Betting Splits: Oklahoma - 53% tickets, 64% handle | Temple - 47% tickets, 36% handle
• Temple Trends:
  • 1st Qt Game Total Over in 7 of last 8 games (+6.10 units / 65% ROI)
  • Game Total Under in last 3 away games (+3 units / 91% ROI)
  • Covered spread in 3 of last 12 games (-6.90 units / -52% ROI)
• Oklahoma Trends:
  • 1st Half Total Over in 7 of last 9 games (+5.85 units / 56% ROI)
  • 1st Half Spread in 9 of last 13 games (+5.65 units / 39% ROI)

Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic: Rebuilding Seasons Collide

Line: Michigan State -14 | O/U: 45

Both Michigan State and Florida Atlantic are in the midst of rebuilds. Michigan State starts the Jonathan Smith era, bringing back 15 starters from a 4-8 season. The key to their success will be the performance of transfer QB Aidan Chilies from Oregon State. Florida Atlantic is in a tougher spot, returning just one starter on offense and dealing with numerous questions throughout their lineup.

Quick Hitters:

• Betting Splits: Michigan State - 78% bets, 83% handle | FAU - 22% tickets, 17% handle
• FAU Trends:
  • 1st Half Game Total Over in 5 of last 6 road games (+3.85 units / 57% ROI)
  • Covered 3 of last 5 road games (+1.90 units / 35% ROI)
  • 0-4 on 1st Half Moneyline in last 4 games (-5.50 units)
• Michigan State Trends:
  • Game Total Under in last 3 games
  • 1Qt Moneyline in 4 of last 7 games (+2 units / 29% ROI)
  • 3-7 ATS in last 10 games (-3.60 units / -33% ROI)

Duke vs. Elon: New Leadership for the Blue Devils

Line: Duke -23.5 | O/U: 49.5

Duke enters the season with 10 returning starters and a new head coach, Manny Diaz, who comes over from Penn State. The Blue Devils will be without star QB Riley Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, and will instead rely on Texas transfer Malik Murphy. Duke finished last year strong with an 8-5 record and a bowl win over Troy. Elon, coming off a 6-5 season, returns QB Matt Downing, who ranked 9th nationally in FCS.

Quick Hitters:

• Betting Splits: Duke - 85% tickets, 86% handle | Elon - 15% bets, 14% handle
• Duke Trends:
  • 1Qt Game Total Under in 9 of last 12 games (+5.30 units / 36% ROI)
  • Game Total Over in 8 of last 12 games (+3.60 units / 27% ROI)
  • 1st Half Game Total Over in 1 of last 8 home games (-4.80 units / -36% ROI)

Wisconsin vs. Western Michigan: The Badgers’ Bounce Back

Line: Wisconsin -23 | O/U: 56

Wisconsin, returning 14 starters, will be led by transfer QB Tyler Van Dyke as they host Western Michigan. The Badgers are looking to bounce back after a disappointing season, but they have a strong track record, having won 16 straight season openers against non-conference teams. Wisconsin is 4-1 SU and 1-2 ATS against Western Michigan.

Quick Hitters:

• Betting Splits: Wisconsin - 70% bets, 58% handle | Western Michigan - 30% bets, 42% handle
• Western Michigan Trends:
  • Covered 1st Half spread in 5 of last 6 road games (+3.95 units / 61% ROI)
  • Game Total Over in 7 of last 10 games (+3.70 units / 34% ROI)
• Wisconsin Trends:
  • Covered 1st Qt Spread in 3 of last 13 games (-8.30 units / -56% ROI)
  • 1st Half Game Total Over in last 5 games (+5 units / 91% ROI)

TCU vs. Stanford: The Horned Frogs’ Road Dominance

Line: TCU -10 | O/U: 60.5

Despite returning 18 starters, Stanford’s win total is set at just 3.5, reflecting low expectations from oddsmakers. Since their upset win over Oregon in 2021, Stanford has struggled significantly, going 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS at home against FBS teams. TCU has won all three previous meetings against Stanford and has been strong in non-conference road games, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 2014.

Quick Hitters:

• Betting Splits: TCU - 59% bets, 14% handle | Stanford - 41% bets, 86% handle
• TCU Trends:
  • Game Total Under in 8 of last 11 games (+4.70 units / 39% ROI)
  • Covered spread in 2 of last 3 games
• Stanford Trends:
  • Game Total Under in 4 of last 6 games (+1.80 units / 27% ROI)

Conclusion

Week 1 Friday night of college football presents a range of intriguing matchups and betting opportunities. Whether you're looking at historical trends, betting splits, or team performance indicators, we hope these ingsights can help you make more informed decisions as you place your wagers. Stay tuned to notes section in the Winners Clubhouse for more analysis and breakdowns moving into the weekend and beyond.