AFC Championship Game: Patriots at Broncos Handicapping Notes

AFC Championship Game: Patriots at Broncos Handicapping Notes

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New England Patriots  @  Denver Broncos

Sunday January 25, 2026      3PM EST.   Denver, Colorado

Current Line: Patriots -5.5     O/U 42.5

Betting Splits:  Patriots - 75% Bets, 73% Handle    Broncos - 25% Bets, 27% Handle

O/U:  42.5     OVER - 54% Bets, 85% Money     UNDER - 46% Bets, 15% Money

 

Patriots Scoring Offense and Defense on the road:  Offense - 29.5 PPG,  Defense - 19.5 PPG

Broncos Scoring Offense and Defense on the road:  Offense - 26.3 PPG, Defense - 19.0 PPG

 

QUICK HITTER NOTES:

  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games.
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
  • New England is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Denver.
  • New England is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against Denver.
  • New England is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
  • New England is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Denver.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games.
  • Denver is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games against New England.
  • Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home.
  • Denver is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against New England.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
  • Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference East division.
  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing as the underdog.
  •  Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+17.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Patriots have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Patriots have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (-4.50 Units / -18% ROI)

 

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