NFL Week 1 - Sunday

Bears @ Titans

Sunday 9/8 1PM EST

Bears -4.5  O/U 44.5

Caleb Williams will be the 6th rookie QB to start Week 1 with a spread of -3 or higher.  Since the merger those QB’s have gone 1-4 SU & ATS.  He will also be the 19th overall 1st Pick to start week 1 since the merger, the previous 18 QB’s have gone 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS. The Titans will start 2nd year QB Will Levis as the Titans are 4-1 SU the last 5 meetings with Chicago.

Quick Hitters:

• Bears 54% Bets, 56% Handle : Titans 46% Bets, 44% Handle
• Bears are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games at home
• Bears have scored 1st in 8 of their last 9 games +7.95 units / 77% ROI
• Bears in their las 22 are 13-9 ATS +5.45 units / 22% ROI
• Titans have hit the 1st Half Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games +7.20 units / 29% ROI
• Titans have only covered the 2nd half spread in 4 of their last 15 games -8.65 units / -50% ROI
• Titans have only hit their team total over in 1 of their last 8 games on the road -7.80 units / -79% ROI

Panthers @ Saints

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Saints -4 O/U 41.5

The Saints will host Bryce Young and the Panthers Sunday and both teams have plenty of questions.  HC of the Saints Dennis Allen is 24-46 SU 34.3% the worst among current NFL Head Coaches.  Derrick Carr is 500ATS or worse as a favorite in 7 straight seasons.  Bryce Young wasn't much better as the Panthers were shut out the final 2 games of the year.

Quick Hitters:

• Saints 55% Bets, 22% Handle : Panthers 45% Bets, 78% Handle
• The total has gone under in the last 5 meetings
• Panthers games have went under 9 of the last 11 games overall
• Panthers have covered the 1st Quarter Spread in 13 of their last 19 games +5.10 units / 19% ROI
• Panthers have only hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 19 games -12.55 units / -60% ROI
• Saints are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games 
• Saints have hit the 2nd Half Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games +8.25 units / 44% ROI
• Saints games have went UNDER the total in 13 of their last 20 games +5.30 units / 24% ROI

Jaguars @ Dolphins

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Dolphins -3.5  O/U 49.5

Quick Hitters:

• Dolphins 41% Bets, 43% Handle : Jaguars 59% bets, 57% handle
• Jaguars have covered the 1st Half Spread 1 of their last 20 +5.20 units / 23% ROI
• Jaguars are 13-8 ATS their last 21 games +4.40 units / 19% ROI
• Dolphins since 2005 are 13-19 SU in Weeks 1-4
• 80 Degrees or higher Tua and the Dolphins are 15-3 SU
• Trevor Lawrence is 8-17 SU and 11-14 ATS on the road
• Tua is 29-22-1 ATS in his career
• Jaguars are 9-3 ATS their last 12 on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the 9 meetings between the 2 teams
• Dolphins are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games

Steelers @ Falcons

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Falcons -3.5  O/U 41.5

QUICK HITTERS:

• Falcons 49% Bets, 52% Handle : Steelers 51% Bets 48% Handle
• Steelers - Tomlin as an Underdog is 59-35-4 ATS 63% the most profitable coach as an underdog the last 20 years.  
• Since 2021 the Steelers are 20-14-1 ATS making them the 4th most profitable team ATS behind the Lions, Giants, & Bengals
• Steelers are 11-1-1 SU in its last 13 games playing Atlanta
• Steelers are 6-1 SU last 7 in Atlanta
• Steelers have scored first in 8 of their last 11 games +4.50 units / 33% ROI
• Steelers have only covered the 1st Half spread in 5 of their last 21 games -12.25 units / -54% ROI
• Falcons are 7-3 SU last 10 games at home
• Falcons games have gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 at home
• Falcons have hit their TEAM TOTAL OVER in their last 4 home games +4 units / 85% ROI
• Falcons are 6-14 ATS their last 20 games -9.30 units / -42% ROI

Vikings @ Giants

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Vikings -2  O/U 41.5

Quick Hitters:

• Giants - 40% Bets, 49% Handle : Vikings - 60% Bets, 51% Handle
• Vikings have covered the spread in 7 of their last 11 road games +5.90 units / 49% ROI
• Vikings vs the 2nd Half spread are 3-10 ATS -9.10 units / -59% ROI
• Giants have hit their TEAM TOTAL OVER in 6 of the their last 8 games +4 units / 43% ROI
• Giants in the 1st Qt are 3-16 on the Moneyline -8.50 units, -42% ROI
• Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 20 games -9.40 units -43% ROI
• Giants at Home since 2020 are 24-8-1 to the UNDER
• Daniel Jones is 17-6-1 to the UNDER
• Brian Daboll is 22-13-1 ATS 63% best win % of any head Coach over the last 20 years.
• Sam Darnold is 22-33-1 ATS in his career making him the 4th least profitable QB ATS since 2018. He is 9-19 SU on the road
• Giants are 6-1 ATS last 7 games

Cardinals @ Bills

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Bills -6.5  O/U 47

Quick Hitters:

• Bills 59% Bets, 50% Handle : Cardinals 41% Bets, 50% Handle
• Cardinals have hit the 2nd Half moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games +7.10 units / 89% ROI
• Cardinals have only covered the 1st Half spread in 7 of their last 20 games -7.60 units . -34% ROI
• Bills have only hit the 2nd Half Game Total Over in 6 of their last 19 games -8.30 units / -39% ROI
• Head 2 Head the TOTAL has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 meetings
• Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs the Cardinals
• Bills are 6-1 SU last 7 games
• Josh Allen when favored by 4 or more points in his career is 8-16-1 ATS
• Kyler Murray as an Underdog is 25-15-2 ATS making him the 2nd most profitable QB since he has been in the league
• Kyler Murray when playing on the east coast is 11-3 ATS

Patriots @ Bengals

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Bengals -7.5 O/U 40.5

Quick Hitters:

• Bengals - 74% Bets, 76% handle : Patriots 26% Bets, 24% Handle
• Patriots have gone Over the Total in 4 of the last 5 road games
• Bengals have gone OVER the TOTAL in 5 of their last 6 games
• Bengals are 13-3 SU last 16 home games
• Patriots biggest Week 1 Underdog, Underdogs of 6.5 pts or more the last 18 years are 46-27 ATS
• Patriots since Brady as a dog are 13-21-1 ATS
• Burrow in career is 36-22-1 ATS
• Bengals have scored 1st in 4 of their last 5 games +3.05 units / 45% ROI
• Bengals have hit their TEAM TOTAL OVER last 3 at home +3 units / 74% ROI

Texans @ Colts

Sunday 9/8 1 PM EST

Texans -3 O/U 48.5

Quick Hitters:

• Texans - 77% Bets, 61% Handle : Colts - 23% Bets, 39% Handle
• Texans have hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games +9.55 units / 33% ROI
• Texans have hit the 1ST Half GAME TOTAL UNDER in their last 10 straight road games +10 units / 91% ROI
• Colts have hit their TEAM TOTAL OVER in 10 of their last 16 games +3.25 units / 18 % ROI
• Colts have hit the GAME TOTAL OVER in 13 of their last 20 games +5.30 units / 24% ROI
• Colts in WEEK 1 since 2008 are 2-13-1 SU and 1-14-1 ATS
• CJ Stroud is 3-5 ATS as a Favorite
• Head 2 Head when playing in Indianapolis the Total has went UNDER in 12 of the last 15 games
• Colts have went OVER THE GAME TOTAL 5 of their last 6 home games

Broncos @ Seahawks

Sunday 9/8 4 PM EST

Seahawks -6   O/U 41.5

Quick Hitters:

• Seahawks - 54% Bets, 62% Handle : Broncos - 46% Bets, 38% Handle
• Head 2 Head when playing in Seattle these 2 teams have gone UNDER 11 of the last 15
• Broncos are 13-6 SU last 19 vs Seattle
• Seattle has gone UNDER the total 4 of their last 5 games
• Seahawks are 30-6 SU at home in the 1st 3 games of the season
• Seahawks lost home opener to Rams last year but haven't lost back to back openers since 2001-2002
• Geno Smith as a favorite is 10-15-1 ATS
• Geno Smith as favorite of more than 4 points is 2-7 ATS in his career
• Broncos have covered the 1st Half Spread in 15 of their last 20 games +9.75 units / 43% ROI
• Broncos have scored 1st in 6 of their last 9 games +3.40 units / 31 % ROI
• Broncos have covered the 1st Half spread in 14 of their last 21 game s +6.45 units / 28% ROI

Commanders @ Buccaneers

Sunday 9/8 4pm EST

Buccaneers -3.5 O/U 42.5

Quick Hitters:

• Bucs - 55% Bets, 45% Handle : Commanders - 45% Bets, 55% Handle
• Commanders have gone OVER the GAME TOTAL in 6 of their last 8 games
• Commanders are 5-2 ATS last 7 in Tampa
• Bucs have gone UNDER the TOTAL in 4 of their last 5
• Baker Mayfield as a favorite is 14-26-1 ATS 35% as a favorite
• Mayfield is 1-4 SU in season openers
• When Mayfield is one of the 2 starting QB’s games are 19-10 to the UNDER
• Commanders have lost 7 straight games as a dog
• Commanders have hit the 1st Half Game TOTAL over in 14 of their last 20 games +6.85 units / 28% ROI
• Bucs have covered the 1st Half spread in 15 of their last 22 games +7.25 units / 29% ROI

Cowboys @ Browns

Sunday 9/8 4:25 Pm EST

Browns -2.5 O/U 41

Quick Hitters:

• Browns - 32% Bets, 38% Handle : Cowboys - 68% Bets, 62% Handle
• Cowboys 4-1 SU last 5 vs the Browns
• Browns are 5-0 SU and ATS their last 5 games at home
• Dak outside of playing the NFC East is 36-43-2 ATS including failing to cover the last 5
• Dak and the Cowboys have lost 7 straight games ATS when listed as an underdog
• Stefanski outside of the AFC North is 25-19-1 ATS
• Cowboys have covered the 1st Quarter spread 14 of their last 20 games +8.10 units / 33% ROI
• Cowboys have only won 5 of their last 11 road games -6 units -20% ROI
• Browns have hit the TEAM TOTAL OVER in 12 of their last 18 Games +4.45 units / 20% ROI
• Browns have hit the moneyline 8 of their last 11 home games +6.05 units / 26% ROI

Rams @ Lions

Sunday 9/8 8:15 PM EST

Lions -4.5 O/U 52

Quick Hitters:

• Lions - 64% Bets, 71% Handle : Rams - 36% Bets, 29% Handle
• Rams 7-3 ATS last 10 games
• Rams have covered the 1st QT spread 13 of their last 20 games +6 units / 26% ROI
• Rams are 12-8 ATS last 20 games +5.40 units / 25% ROI
• Lions have covered the spread 16 of their last 21 games +10.50 units / 45% ROI
• Lions have hit the GAME TOTAL OVER 15 of their last 21 games +8.40 units / 36% ROI
• Lions 8-1 SU last 9 home games
• Lions 6-1 ATS last 7 games
• Sean Mcvay is 6-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 covering by 9ppg
• Goff 25-9 ATS last 3 years
• Goff in season openers in his career is 7-0 ATS

Jets @ 49ers

Monday 9/9 8:15 PM EST

49ers -4.5 O/U 43.5

Quick Hitters:

• 49ers - 52% Bets, 38% Handle : Jets - 48% Bets, 62% Handle
• Jets have only covered the 1st half spread in 7 of their last 20 games -10.45 units / -36% ROI
• 49ers have hit the 1st Half Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games +6.30 units / 10% ROI
• 49ers have hit the 2nd half GAME TOTAL OVER in 6 of their last 8 games at home +3.85 units / 45% ROI
• Jets have went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6
• 49ers are 21-4 SU last 25 games at home
• Head 2 Head these teams have went UNDER the total 5 of the last 6
• Aaron Rodgers is 3-13 SU as a dog of more than 4 points in his career
• 49ers have lost 7 straight games ATS at home
• When Christian McCaferrey starts the 49ers are 26-6 SU & 19-13 ATS